" ... Fortune and misfortune lie with the ruler, not with the
seasons of heaven."
- Thai Kung-Chinese Thinker, from the Seven Military
Classics of Ancient China
The Blame Belongs to the Clerical Leadership
The irresponsible behavior of the clerical government leaders
in Tehran over the past decade or so has brought about the trade
sanctions imposed by the United States. It is indeed
un-fortunate that those least responsible for Iran's foolhardily
and high risk foreign and domestic policies are those likely to
suffer the greatest economic and political distress-namely the
vast portion of the Iranian population. More to the point, the
radical clerical leadership, in particular, those who promoted
terrorism and instability in the regime are responsible for all
the hardships the people of Iran face. Iran's involvement in
terrorism and undermining of peace in the Middle East are
finally recognized by the international police and security
community.
As if this were not enough, the present regime has undertaken
a surreptitious program aimed at achieving a nuclear weapons
capability. Despite denials by the Iranian government over the
past several years and most recently by President Ali Akbar
Hashemi Rafsanjani over the ABC television, there is sufficient
evidence to put a lie to those denials. The world intelligence
community has pieced together a collection of activities of
Iranian government sponsored purchases of building materials and
raw materials to construct a nuclear weapon. This activity is
reminiscent of Iraq's nuclear weapons development program during
the 1970's, which much of the world chose to ignore until it
became obvious in 1981 with the functioning of the Osirak
reactor. It is this irresponsible behavior of the Tehran regime
with its threat to the international community and particularly
to the security interests of the United States that has brought
about the imposition of total economic sanctions by the American
President and Congress. The result of this US - Iranian
confrontation could mean further distress and suffering for the
Iranian people.
The attitude (position) of Focus on Iran regarding the
imposition of economic sanctions against the current regime is
guided by two primary considerations: 1) concern for the safety
and well-being of the Iranian people, and 2) the rationality of
the US response to Iran's provocative and inimical behavior.
Even though the historical record of international sanctions
indicates far less than total compliance, nevertheless some
adherence to US sanctions can be expected. This would more
likely happen if the US government retaliated against those
non-compliers who benefit from a significant imbalance with the
United States (e.g. Japan and some European countries).
The on-going economic sanctions imposed on Iraq may as well
be indicative of the prospects of US imposed sanctions against
Iran namely, the persistence of the rule of an unwelcomed
despotic regime at the cost of political and economic oppression
of its people. Moreover, as the world has found Saddam Hussein
at shame for the suffering of the Iraqi people for his
threatening and aggressive behavior against the international
community, so will the radical fundamentalist regime be found
responsible for the welfare of its people. The Tehran regime
cannot escape its provocative behavior in the international
community. The Iranian people may have to pay the price for
their government's erratic behavior.
Secondly, the response alternatives available to the United
States in the face of Iranian support of terrorism and nuclear
weapons capability are limited short of military action. The
United States' intelligence agencies as well as foreign sources
have amassed sufficient credible data to convince even the most
skeptical in the government and the Congress, of these Iranian
activities. The response alternative of economic sanctions
including cessation of all trade relations with Iran, though
potentially harmful to the Iranian people, is understandable and
rational. This was the conclusion drawn by Senator D'Amato (R -
NY) and President Clinton in their respective congressional and
executive measures for extraordinary trade sanctions reflects
the general attitude and approval of the Congress and the
American people.
As previously noted above, the "dual containment policy" of
economic sanctions against Iraq and now Iran will meet with much
resistance and will likely be violated by Japan, the United
Kingdom, France and Germany, who are major trading partners with
Iran and importers of its oil. In light of this economic
reality, the American response should be seen as a rational
"thing to do". Put in more prosaic terns, "let the punishment
fit the crime" of support for terrorism and pursuit of nuclear
weapons capability.
We should take note here as to the response alternative
offered by those not supporting the US-sponsored economic
sanctions. Japan, the United Kingdom, most notably Germany and
the European Economic Union in one voice insisted that talk and
negotiations with Iran would yield better results than economic
sanctions. Simply put, this is void of historic reality and
represents a form of appeasement predicted on economic self
interest rather than moral courage. From Iran's point of view,
this tactic has been successfully learned from protracted and
fruitless negotiations by the North Koreans and the North
Vietnamese. In these "negotiations" intransigent Communists
yield nothing as thousands more American casualties accumulated
on the battlefield. It was only when the United States
threatened with massive force that the Communists understood the
cost of not negotiating in good faith. Likewise the Iranian
leadership must realize it has nothing to lose by endless
negotiating. The leadership in Tehran have nothing to fear from
the detractors of economic sanctions. For its part, the United
States has learned the tragic cost of this appeasing and
bankrupt tactic.
Though it has already been acknowledged that economic
sanctions will not be completely effective, the cost to Iran
should not be dismissed. The first psychological implication of
the sanction will be very important. Moreover, the American oil
companies purchase approximately twenty percent (about $4
billion) of Iranian oil annually for resale as refined products
outside the United States their immediate replacement by other
buyers may not be as easy as some have stated in the press.
Because of Iran's trade deficit and indebtedness to would be
purchasing countries, they very well could opt to "pay" in
liquidating the debt rather than paying in cash which the
Americans and of course, the Iranian leadership would prefer.
Perhaps even more costly to the Iranian economy is the long term
effects of the loss of replacement parts for its American made
oil drilling and refining processes. Much of this equipment
needs overhaul and replacement, tasks that can only be performed
adequately by the American suppliers. The rationality of the
United States sanctions must also be seen in this light.
However, the United States will try to convince the major
industrial powers, that meet in Canada in June, to go along with
the sanctions. Some specialists believe that even without the
participation of Japan and Europe, United States sanctions will
have important ramifications and will enhance prospects for
replacement of the clerical regime. It will send the message to
the world that the United States stands for principles even at
the cost of loss of trade. It will increase dissatisfaction of
the Iranian people with the despotic regime of the clerics. It
will contribute to the growing unrest of the populace because of
the worsening economic situation. It will diminish the ability
of the regime to buy off internal and external opponents. And
finally, it will limit the power of the Islamic Republic to
finance over 130 terrorist organizations worldwide, and will
weaken the support of the armed forces for the regime for lack
of access to modern weapons and military technology.
The Questions of Human Rights and Moral Response
Behind the mere sensational explication of Iran's support of
terrorism and nuclear weapons capability is its enduring and
dismal record of denying its citizens their basic human rights.
Whatever conditions prevailed prior to 1979, the sixteen years
since then has witnessed a return to absolute authoritarianism,
thought control, regulated moralism, religious conformism, etc.
all in the name of the "revolution" and an enunciated and
ordained revealed "True" Islam. Although the US-imposed economic
sanctions do not ostensibly refer to the denial of human rights
in Iran, those who care for freedom and human rights should
understand that sanctions will help and lead to promotion of
human rights. Unquestionably, the potential for increased
political as well as economic distress for the Iranian populace
is great. Unfortunately, this burden must be further endured by
those most vulnerable and least able to resist such a burden. It
is very discomforting and regretful, but it is a fact. It is
hoped that a successful campaign against the external policies
will bring about a change in domestic policy ultimately by
forcing the present leadership to leave office voluntarily under
pressure of public opinion or outright force. In the first case,
the most desirable and peaceful transition to freedom and
democracy would be achieved with the abdication of power by the
present clerical leadership in recognition of their failed
foreign and domestic policies. In the latter case, public
reaction culminating in civil war would be the inevitable
outcome with its anticipated loss of life and physical
destruction. In any event, domestic repressive human rights
issue must be an important consideration attendant to the
response alternatives to the regime's threatening foreign policy
ventures.
Sanctions and Human Rights - Important Considerations
No doubt the sanction policy against Iran will further
isolate the despotic regime of the clerics, but will also
increase the hardship and suffering of the Iranian people. Since
it has been difficult for the United States to persuade its
allies to pressure Iran, it is unlikely that sanctions alone can
change the behavior of the regime. Europeans and Asians buy and
sell over $15 billion worth of goods in Iran every year and this
makes it difficult for them to change their policy toward Iran
and support the US economic sanctions. The United
States must give serious thought, if it is really interested in
fighting international terrorism and containing the current
pariah regime of Tehran, to reconstruct relations with Iran,
including consideration of all options to help Iranian people
restore their rights. As we have said earlier, the most
important factor to be considered is human rights that have been
violated by the regime for the past sixteen years. Pursuing the
clerical regime on human rights issue is the most important
weapon. It will have the full support of the Iranian people and
could be more effective.
President Clinton has repeatedly expressed his intention of
promoting democracy and human rights in the world at large. Iran
would be the ideal place for this. Sanctions may not be a very
effective policy, but human rights will galvanize Iranians
inside and the four million expatriates outside to support the
United States policy and assist the United States in replacing
the present despotic regime in Tehran with a moderate and
democratic one. This is the only sure way to bring stability to
the region, putting an end to Iranian support of international
terrorism, Iranian anti-peace policy, and the dangerous drive to
acquire nuclear weapons. President Clinton should know that the
majority of the Iranian people long for the democratic and
enlightened government that contributes to their security and
peace in the region. They want to establish friendly and
mutually beneficial relationship with America. What they need
from the United States is moral support. Prior to the
revolution, there was over 40 years of cooperative exchange of
cultural, economic, security, and military between Iran and the
United States. A potential of reservoir of good will and respect
is still very useful for future United States - Iranian
relationship.
The Task Facing the Supporters of Iranian Freedom The Iranian
people and those who support its goals of freedom and democracy
must prepare for the eventuality of the removal of the present
regime by peaceful, or if necessary, by forceful means. They
must be prepared mentally, financially, and physically to commit
themselves not only to the removal of the regime, preferably
through peaceful means, and to assume the forging of the a new
democratic government with unconditional human and civil rights.
These freedom advocates must prepare an indictment of the
present regime based on the following counts:
• the violation of human rights • destruction of the economy
• support of domestic and external terrorism
• the undertaking of a program of nuclear weapons production
and delivery program at the risk of danger to the security of the
nation.
The major mental preparation requires a very deep felt
understanding even though the situation now seems bleakest and
impervious to change, change can only come through the tireless
efforts of the Iranian people in and outside of Iran. Furthermore,
this effort will require an extensive outlay of financial support
(mainly from expatriates and other supporters) for various
activities essential to bringing about the transition to
democracy, the fact that the Iranian people would fight if
necessary for freedom from a despotic regime is evident from its
history. The fruits of victory is perhaps the most important and
the most difficult task facing the Iranian people. For this they
must be prepared to undertake sooner than most people realize, in
order to achieve the goals of freedom and human rights, for the
Iranian nation and its people.