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Founded in 1972. Formerly Defense & Foreign
Affairs Daily. Volume XXV, No. 59 Tuesday, July 31, 2007 © 2007 Global
Information System. Contact: GRCopley@StrategicStudies.org
Moving Toward a Confluence of Disruptive Events in
the Middle East
________________________________________
Analysis. By Gregory Copley, Editor, GIS. A diverse range of
intelligence sources have highlighted a pattern of imminent upheaval across a
wide area of the Middle East, expected to culminate during, and following,
September 2007, involving (a) possible military action within Iraq to change the
Government; and (b) renewed provocations against Israel by proxy forces in
Lebanon (HizbAllah) and Gaza (HAMAS). The two issues are intrinsically related,
but are being coordinated separately to some extent.
.....
Certainly, the US is doing nothing to support the Iranian
population in removing the Iranian leadership through a
psychological strategy campaign, and nor is it doing anything to
effectively, and carefully, replace Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, and
put in place a leader who would break with Tehran (and make
peace with Israel), such as Rifa’at al-Assad.
.....
At the same time, while most Iranian opposition leaders are
falling by the wayside through lack of credibility, at least
one, the nationalist leader of the overarching Azadegan
movement, Dr Assad Homayoun, has retained respect by refusing to
accept financial support by anyone other than Iranians, and by
supporting the approach that the tribal and regional groups
should work toward a secular state, and has also worked toward
the theory that the Iranian Armed Forces and the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC: Pasdaran) should remove support
for the clerics and support a popular movement aimed at
introducing secular governance, even if temporarily under
military leadership.
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Disruptive Events in the
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