Founded in 1972. Formerly Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily. Volume XXV, No. 59 Tuesday, July 31, 2007 © 2007 Global Information System. Contact: GRCopley@StrategicStudies.org

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Analysis. By Gregory Copley, Editor, GIS. A diverse range of intelligence sources have highlighted a pattern of imminent upheaval across a wide area of the Middle East, expected to culminate during, and following, September 2007, involving (a) possible military action within Iraq to change the Government; and (b) renewed provocations against Israel by proxy forces in Lebanon (HizbAllah) and Gaza (HAMAS). The two issues are intrinsically related, but are being coordinated separately to some extent.

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Certainly, the US is doing nothing to support the Iranian population in removing the Iranian leadership through a psychological strategy campaign, and nor is it doing anything to effectively, and carefully, replace Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, and put in place a leader who would break with Tehran (and make peace with Israel), such as Rifa’at al-Assad.

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At the same time, while most Iranian opposition leaders are falling by the wayside through lack of credibility, at least one, the nationalist leader of the overarching Azadegan movement, Dr Assad Homayoun, has retained respect by refusing to accept financial support by anyone other than Iranians, and by supporting the approach that the tribal and regional groups should work toward a secular state, and has also worked toward the theory that the Iranian Armed Forces and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC: Pasdaran) should remove support for the clerics and support a popular movement aimed at introducing secular governance, even if temporarily under military leadership.

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